Understanding the Market Force Behind Producers’ Bottom Lines.
Cattle producers have a lot on their plates managing the day-to-day grind of ranch life, and in an industry with constantly changing dynamics, it’s easy to overlook the forces shaping market returns. There’s one factor that quietly influences producer profitability, and it often gets misunderstood: consumer beef demand.
In the 1980s, consumer confidence was slipping, dietary trends were shifting and beef demand plummeted, taking cattle prices down with it. Producers were culling herds, packing plants were closing and the ripple effects were felt across rural America.
In response, cattle producers voted to create the Beef Checkoff in 1985, a beef promotion, research and education program with one mission — building consumer demand for beef. Forty years later, the Beef Checkoff’s mission hasn’t changed. If anything, it’s become even more important in today’s marketplace. When demand is strong, everyone in the beef supply chain benefits, starting with the producer.
Let’s break demand down using real data, insights from Kansas State University Agricultural Economics Professor Dr. Glynn Tonsor and tools like the Meat Demand Monitor to show how demand ensures long-term profitability on the ranch.
Demand vs. Consumption: Why the Difference Matters
Consumption = how much beef is eaten.
Demand = how much consumers are willing to buy at different prices of beef.
It’s common to hear these two terms used interchangeably, but they’re not the same. While consumption can tell us the volume of beef people are eating, it doesn’t tell us how much they’re willing to pay (and by extension total beef expenditures), and that’s the number that really influences the market.
Demand is the more powerful measure because it captures both volume (lbs) and value ($/lb). It reflects how much beef consumers buy and the price they’re willing to pay. When demand is high, it means consumers are not just eating beef; they’re choosing it on purpose, even when it costs more. That kind of willingness to pay is what supports strong cattle prices.
Dr. Tonsor explains this using a blue jeans analogy. “If you walk into a store planning to buy one pair of jeans, but you spot a buy-one-get-one-free deal and leave with two pairs, your consumption doubled, but your demand didn’t change,” he said. “You simply bought more than originally planned because the price was lower than anticipated. Now flip that: if you went in planning to buy one pair and left with two at full price because you liked the fit and quality, that’s true demand growth. You valued the product enough to pay more for it.”
That’s why consumption data alone can be misleading. There could be millions of pounds of beef sold, but if it was all discounted to quickly move through the system, it’s not likely helping producers’ bottom lines as total industry dollars have likely not grown. That’s why the Beef Checkoff uses demand as an indicator for a successful, profitable industry.
Demand’s Power
Last year offered a clear example of how powerful consumer demand can be. In 2024, beef production was essentially flat, up just 0.1%, with no major shifts in slaughter numbers or carcass weights. Yet fed cattle prices rose 6.6%, and feeder cattle prices jumped 15.6%. This fact can be attributed in part to stronger consumer beef demand.
Taking it a step further, research conducted by PH.D.s Melissa McKendree, Glynn Tonsor, Ted Schroeder and Nathan Hendricks estimated how much cattle prices respond to changes in retail beef demand:
- 1% increase in demand boosts fed cattle prices by 1.52%.
- It also boosts feeder cattle prices by 2.48%.2
Using that math, 2024’s 6.7% rise in beef demand2 translates into a:
- 10.2% increase in fed cattle prices.
- 16.6% increase in feeder cattle prices.1
“This model helps us put real numbers behind the value of demand growth,” Tonsor said. “It shows just how much of a per-head return is tied to what consumers are willing to pay at retail.”
In short, if demand hadn’t grown, both fed and feeder cattle prices in 2024 likely would have been 10% lower or more.2
What’s Driving Demand Today?
What’s behind this rise in demand? Two major factors, according to the Meat Demand Monitor (MDM), co-funded by the Beef Checkoff, which surveys 3,000 U.S. residents every month:
1. Taste
Consistently, taste is the number one reason consumers choose beef.
In April 2025:
- 58% of respondents said taste was a top driver.
- Only 13% said it was a low priority.3
The U.S. cattle industry has responded by improving carcass quality over the past two decades. Rates of Prime and upper two-thirds Choice have increased, giving consumers a more consistent, flavorful eating experience. The Beef Checkoff reinforces this effort with targeted consumer campaigns and influencer partnerships that spotlight beef’s superior taste and eating experience.
2. A “Pro-Protein” Culture
The broader American public has been leaning toward protein-rich diets. Vegan and vegetarian diets are declining, according to MDM data. Additionally, MDM data shows demand for plant-based alternatives peaked in 2021 and has steadily declined since.
“This hasn’t been a headwind for beef,” Tonsor said. “Beef demand has continued to grow despite more availability of these products.”
What About Sustainability?
Negative reports about the environmental impact of agricultural practices can sometimes circulate in news outlets, often causing producers to feel anxious and defensive. Still, MDM data shows environmental impact ranks much lower as a driving point for consumer purchasing decisions. In April, only 12% of respondents listed environmental impact in their top four drivers, while 65% put it in the bottom four3.
Dr. Tonsor emphasizes that broad demand is still being driven by eating experience, price and freshness, not claims about sustainability. While sustainability may not be a leading purchase driver, the Beef Checkoff continues to highlight producers’ environmental stewardship through national campaigns showcasing responsible grazing, water conservation and habitat preservation. These campaigns remind consumers that raising beef and caring for the land go hand in hand.
Does the Beef Checkoff Make an Impact?
In comparison to other commodity checkoffs, the Beef Checkoff collection amount has not changed since its inception — $1 per head on the sale of live domestic and imported cattle. With inflation, the economic purchasing power of $1 today is not the same as it was in 1985. In response, Beef Checkoff efforts have had to adjust. For example, instead of airing beef ads on traditional broadcast channels, ads now run on Connected TV platforms like Hulu and YouTube, where they reach urban consumers most likely to be influenced.
“Beef Checkoff efforts often out-punch their weight,” Tonsor said. “The programs help drive value well beyond the size of the investment.”
In today’s complex, fragmented market, where consumer preferences vary by age, region and income, demand growth is not something to take for granted. It’s something that must be earned and protected with every dollar and every message. That’s why the Beef Checkoff remains focused on doing exactly that, driving demand through research, promotion and education to keep beef front and center on the plate.